Absence in the Present

Stumbling on Happiness

Daniel Gilbert, in his book Stumbling on Happiness talks about the right way to calculate the causal relationship between two things.

He gives a funny example using pigeon poop which I can relate to, only when I was growing up in Huntington Beach my problem was the seagulls. They were trained to appear at the lunch bell and we had to duck and cover or get hit!

So his question is: Are pigeons out to get us or is it just dumb luck? The right way to calculate this is to consider both the presence and the absence of pigeon poop on your jacket when walking around pigeons.

Studies show that when ordinary people want to know when two things are casually related, they routinely search for, attend to, consider and remember information about what did happen and fail to search for, attend to, consider and remember information about what did not.

There is a story about a visitor to a Roman temple. To impress the visitor with the power of the gods, the Roman showed him a picture of “seven pious sailors” whose faith had allowed them to survive a recent shipwreck as evidence of a miracle. “But,” inquired the visitor, “where are the pictures of those who perished after taking their vows?”

His point is that the human mind can make some pretty bizarre judgments when we fail to think about the absence of evidence.

This brings to my mind two things:

1. If this calculation was used to measure prayer I am convinced the absence of answers would far outweigh the presence of answers (especially answers that were exact and not the kind that concludes God knew better and gave me something else).

Once upon a time, when I was searching for answers, I listened to a tape series based on a scientific study of the power of prayer. I listened to it in the hope and belief that it would fortify my belief in prayer. But the conclusion the author came to was that sometimes prayer works and sometimes it doesn’t. In their opinion that was good enough to say that prayer works. In my opinion it isn’t good enough. If it doesn’t work all the time, it doesn’t work and shouldn’t be relied upon.

2. It makes me cringe when people (well-meaning I know) talk about how they were “saved” from something perilous (like a plane crash) because God has something great for them to do. I, like the visitor, ask: “What about all who perished?”


This book is smart and funny (if indeed a book can be anything). Daniel Gilbert shows why we are so lousy at predicting what will make us happy. Give this book a try and let me know what you think.

Most of us spend our lives steering ourselves toward the best of all possible futures, only to find that tomorrow rarely turns out as we had expected. Why? As Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert explains, when people try to imagine what the future will hold, they make some basic and consistent mistakes. Just as memory plays tricks on us when we try to look backward in time, so does imagination play tricks when we try to look forward.

Stumbling on Happiness

from bookclubs.ca

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7 Responses to “Absence in the Present”

  1. Mary Says:
    June 5th, 2006 at 6:53 pm

    Hmmmmm, I was under the impression that prayer was a conversation, not a wish list. But that is me. Any prayer I have made about myself (attitude change, patience, forgiveness, peace etc) have always been answered in a positive way. This is a world where others have the freedom to sin, Can my prayer change another person? I am not sure. It hasn’t worked on some, but it has on others. Of course it probably had nothing to do with my prayer personally. A “wish list” type of prayer reminds me of a kid who whines that their parent never gives them what they want. Of course they are fed,clothed and sheltered. But that is not what the whiney kid wants. I too cringe when people say they were singled out and “saved”. I mean really if the ones who perished are living in heaven and the one who was “saved” is still here, who made out better on the deal.

  2. Theresa Says:
    June 5th, 2006 at 7:53 pm

    “Can my prayer change another person? I am not sure. It hasn’t worked on some, but it has on others. Of course it probably had nothing to do with my prayer personally.”

    Actually, this is the type of prayer the tape course was testing - prayer to change, heal, transform other people. I agree that if you are “praying” to change yourself you have a much better chance. You can only control you - not anybody else, no matter how good your intentions.

    Thanks for your insights Mary.

  3. mary Says:
    June 6th, 2006 at 6:52 am

    Exactly, we all have the choice to choose evil over good. Kayla asks me sometimes why did such and such happen to a certain person. Only thing I can say is that this is an evil, fallen world. If God was running it or his people, things like this wouldn’t happen. But of course that is describing heaven. But people have free will for better or worse. If I just watched the news I would believe it is all for the worse, but I know better. I see good all day long.

  4. Theresa Says:
    June 6th, 2006 at 9:59 am

    I thought George Bush WAS running the world :-)

    I can’t get behind the “evil, fallen world” view of life. I prefer more of a Forrest Gump view of life:

    Life is like a box of chocolates; you never know what your’re going to get.

    and…

    Shit happens.

    and…

    Stupid is as stupid does.

  5. Mary Says:
    June 10th, 2006 at 4:57 pm

    I talked to Dad today and he is having problems between getting his house in California sold and his new house is getting done faster than he expected. He said his new phrase and philosophy is “whatever”. He must have said that a half a dozen times :) Right after I talked to him, Kayla called him and asked if she could stay with him for the summer, of course he was probably thinking “whatever”. She is threatening to cook for him, which is good but she loves to cook healthy (I don’t think she will be cooking much frozen pizza for him)

    On a bad note, whether you believe it or not, evil exists in this world big time. I just finished a cultural anthropology class and it is fascinating to see how many cultures, totally oblivious to each other, have many of the same taboo’s and laws. Most laws are to protect the majority from the minority.

    While Forrest was certainly right with his sayings, they are only a small part of the big picture. I remember dad telling me when I was having all the trouble with Kayla “Either she will get better or she won’t” Don’t ask me why that helped, but it did. I always read “attitude” to my students by C. Swindoll when we get to the “now you have to go out and get a job” section of our program. In most parts of life attitude IS everything.

    In the past 30 years of my life I have seen evil, touched evil and cleaned up the lives destroyed by it. You wouldn’t belive the cases I have read, people I have worked with or the pictures I have seen. Ask anyone social worker, police officer or health care worker and they could tell you all about it. I guess I have seen so much evil that not believing there is a polar opposite would be too much. I have seen unbelievable good too, but that is the exception not the rule. This is without a doubt a evil and fallen world. Just be glad it hasn’t touched you or yours and hope all of my family remains in “ignorance” of it because I still see things in my minds eye and it isn’t pretty.

    lots of love
    Mary

  6. Theresa Says:
    June 14th, 2006 at 9:49 am

    Mary - I didn’t mean to imlpy there is no evil in the world, I agree, there is. Some people are truly evil.

    What I meant to get across is that I don’t think the world is evil - it just is. I am not waiting to get to a better place, not waiting to be rescued out of here, or looking for something better. Bad things happen to good people and good things happen to bad people. And the other way around.

    I don’t think there is a devil out there somewhere throwing bad stuff at the world. I don’t think there is a god out there protecting us from evil, or allowing it to happen to build our character, or throwing good stuff our way. I don’t think there are any supernatural beings out there concerned with our individual welfare.

    I read an interesting article this morning on the book Hardwired Behavior. Check it out: http://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/06-06-01.html.

    I like my life right here, right now. I enjoy my friends and family and try to make the most out of every experience. I don’t need any more. And because I don’t believe in an afterlife, I do what I can to make my “right now” life the best it can be. I am content.

  7. Mary Says:
    June 14th, 2006 at 7:34 pm

    Well, there we will have to agree to disagree about God and the devil. I am glad you are content. What would happen if you lost your family, friends,health and comforts of your life. Would you still be content? Most religious people could. Who are the happiest people on earth? People who spend thier life serving others are the happiest. Most people only spend their lives serving others because of their religion, any religion. Some of them believe in an afterlife and some don’t. Would I choose a religous life with its restrictions, high ethics and sacrifice over a life of self even if there wasn’t the promise of the afterlife? In a heartbeat.

    lots of love
    Mary
    hey they sold the beadstore I wanted to win!!!!! I guess they had a clause or something that allowed then to do it. Boo hoo.

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